SHFE tin prices opened lower in the night session and then fluctuated upward. The spot market remained sluggish [SMM tin morning news].

SMM Tin Morning Brief on July 21, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) opened slightly lower in the night session before fluctuating upward, eventually climbing to around 264,800 yuan/mt and closing at 264,800 yuan/mt, up 0.37% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) TSMC's 2nm process entered mass production as scheduled in H2. Industry sources indicate that due to overwhelming demand from first-wave 2nm clients like Apple and Intel, coupled with upcoming adoption by Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Nvidia, TSMC faces severe 2nm supply constraints. Consequently, it plans significant capacity expansion, targeting a 1.5-fold increase in monthly 2nm capacity from 40,000 wafers at the end of this year to 100,000 wafers by next year, potentially doubling again to 200,000 wafers by 2027. (Bullish★) (2) On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, NDRC, and State Administration for Market Regulation jointly held an NEV industry symposium to standardize competition practices. The meeting emphasized strengthened supervision, including price monitoring, product consistency checks, shortened supplier payment terms, online misconduct rectification, and quality inspections to ensure product safety and reliability. (Bullish★) (3) US Commerce Secretary Lutnick expressed confidence in reaching a tariff agreement with the EU, noting small nations would pay a 10% baseline tariff, while criticizing Powell for maintaining excessively high interest rates.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply disruptions: Tin ore supply tightens in major production regions like Yunnan, with some smelters potentially maintaining maintenance shutdowns or minor production cuts in July. (Bullish★) (2) Demand: PV sector: Post-installation rush, tin bar orders declined in east China, lowering operating rates at some producers. Electronics: South China's end-use electronics entered off-season amid high tin prices, with end-users showing strong wait-and-see sentiment and maintaining only essential orders. Other sectors: Stable demand from tinplate and chemical industries without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: Smelters held firm offers after price hikes, but downstream acceptance remained low. Traders reported transactions relied mainly on rigid demand, with some downstream buyers delaying purchases after completing restocking. End-use industries entered off-season.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should exercise caution and avoid substituting independent judgment. SMM bears no responsibility for decisions made based on this content.]